Biomarker identification using dynamic time warping analysis: a longitudinal cohort study of patients with COVID-19 in a UK tertiary hospital.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 is a heterogeneous disease, and many reports have described variations in demographic, biochemical and clinical features at presentation influencing overall hospital mortality. However, there is little information regarding longitudinal changes in laboratory prognostic variables in relation to disease progression in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. DESIGN AND SETTING: This retrospective observational report describes disease progression from symptom onset, to admission to hospital, clinical response and discharge/death among patients with COVID-19 at a tertiary centre in South East England. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred and fifty-one patients treated for SARS-CoV-2 between March and September 2020 were included in this analysis. Ethical approval was obtained from the HRA Specific Review Board (REC 20/HRA/2986) for waiver of informed consent. RESULTS: The majority of patients presented within 1 week of symptom onset. The lowest risk patients had low mortality (1/45, 2%), and most were discharged within 1 week after admission (30/45, 67%). The highest risk patients, as determined by the 4C mortality score predictor, had high mortality (27/29, 93%), with most dying within 1 week after admission (22/29, 76%). Consistent with previous reports, most patients presented with high levels of C reactive protein (CRP) (67% of patients >50 mg/L), D-dimer (98%>upper limit of normal (ULN)), ferritin (65%>ULN), lactate dehydrogenase (90%>ULN) and low lymphocyte counts (81%

Wave comparisons of clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 admissions - Exploring the impact of treatment and strain dynamics.

OBJECTIVES: Dexamethasone has now been incorporated into the standard of care for COVID-19 hospital patients. However, larger intensive care unit studies have failed to show discernible improvements in mortality in the recent wave. We aimed to investigate the impacts of these factors on disease outcomes in a UK hospital study. METHODS: This retrospective observational study reports patient characteristics, interventions and outcomes in COVID-19 patients from a UK teaching hospital; cohort 1, pre 16th June-2020 (pre-dexamethasone); cohort 2, 17th June to 30th November-2020 (post-dexamethasone, pre-VOC 202,012/01 as dominant strain); cohort 3, 1st December-2020 to 3rd March-2021 (during establishment of VOC202012/01 as the dominant strain). RESULTS: Dexamethasone treatment was more common in cohorts 2 and 3 (42.7% and 51.6%) compared with cohort 1 (2.5%). After adjusting for risk, odds of death within 28 days were 2-fold lower in cohort 2 vs 1 (OR:0.47,[0.27,0.79],p = 0.006). Mortality was higher cohort 3 vs 2 (20% vs 14%); but not significantly different to cohort 1 (OR: 0.86,[0.64, 1.15],p = 0.308). CONCLUSIONS: The real world finding of lower mortality following dexamethasone supports the published trial evidence and highlights ongoing need for research with introduction of new treatments and ongoing concern over new COVID-19 variants.

The emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variant P.1 in Amazonas (Brazil) was temporally associated with a change in the age and sex profile of COVID-19 mortality: A population based ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Since the end of 2020, there has been a great deal of international concern about the variants of SARS-COV-2 B.1.1.7, identified in the United Kingdom; B.1.351 discovered in South Africa and P.1, originating from the Brazilian state of Amazonas. The three variants were associated with an increase in transmissibility and worsening of the epidemiological situation in the places where they expanded. The lineage B.1.1.7 was associated with the increase in case fatality rate in the United Kingdom. There are still no studies on the case fatality rate of the other two variants. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality profile before and after the emergence of the P.1 strain in the Amazonas state. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe), comparing two distinct epidemiological periods: during the peak of the first wave, between April and May 2020, and in January 2021 (the second wave), the month in which the new variant came to predominate. We calculated mortality rates, overall case fatality rate and case fatality rate among hospitalized patients; all rates were calculated by age and gender and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were determined. FINDINGS: We observed that in the second wave there were a higher incidence and an increase in the proportion of cases of COVID-19 in the younger age groups. There was also an increase in the proportion of women among Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) cases from 40% (2,709) in the first wave to 47% (2,898) in the second wave and in the proportion of deaths due to COVID-19 between the two periods varying from 34% (1,051) to 47% (1,724), respectively. In addition, the proportion of deaths among people between 20 and 59 years old has increased in both sexes. The case fatality rate among those hospitalized in the population between 20 and 39 years old during the second wave was 2.7 times the rate observed in the first wave (female rate ratio = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.9-3.9], p <0.0001; male rate ratio = 2.70, 95%CI:2.0-3.7), and in the general population the rate ratios were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.1-1.2) in females and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.7-0.8) in males]. INTERPRETATION: Based on this prompt analysis of the epidemiological scenario in the Amazonas state, the observed changes in the pattern of mortality due to COVID-19 between age groups and gender simultaneously with the emergence of the P.1 strain suggest changes in the pathogenicity and virulence profile of this new variant. Further studies are needed to better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants profile and their impact for the health population. FUNDING: There was no funding for this study.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on ST-elevation myocardial infarction admissions and outcomes in a Portuguese primary percutaneous coronary intervention center: Preliminary Data.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has led to significant changes in healthcare systems and its impact on the treatment of cardiovascular conditions, such as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), is unknown in countries where the healthcare systems were not saturated, as was the case in Portugal. As such, we aimed to assess the effect on STEMI admissions and outcomes in Portuguese centers. METHODS: We conducted a single-center, observational, retrospective study including all patients admitted to our hospital due to STEMI between the date of the first SARS-CoV-2 case diagnosed in Portugal and the end of the state of emergency (March and April 2020). Patient characteristics and outcomes were assessed and compared with the same period of 2019. RESULTS: A total of 104 STEMI patients were assessed, 55 in 2019 and 49 in 2020 (-11%). There were no significant differences between groups regarding age (62±12 vs. 65±14 years, p=0.308), gender (84.8% vs. 77.6% males, p=0.295) or comorbidities. In the 2020 group, there was a significant decrease in the proportion of patients transported to the hospital in pre-hospital emergency medical transportation (38.2% vs. 20.4%, p=0.038), an increase in system delay (49 [30-110.25] vs. 140 [90-180] minutes, p=0.019), a higher Killip-Kimball class, with a decrease in class I (74.5% vs. 51%) and an increase in class III (1.8% vs. 8.2%) and IV (5.5% vs. 18.4%) (p=0.038), a greater incidence of vasoactive support (3.7% vs. 26.5%, p=0.001), invasive mechanic ventilation usage (3.6% vs. 14.3%, p=0.056), and an increase in severe left ventricular dysfunction at hospital discharge (3.6% vs. 16.3%, p=0.03). In-hospital mortality was 14.3% in the 2020 group and 7.3% in the 2019 group p=0.200). CONCLUSION: Despite a lack of significant variation in the absolute number of STEMI admissions, there was an increase in STEMI clinical severity and significantly worse outcomes during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. An increase in system delay, impaired pre-hospital care and patient fear of in-hospital infection can partially justify these results and should be the target of future actions in further waves of the pandemic.

INTRODUÇÃO: A doença por coronavírus 2019 (COVID-19) originou alterações significativas nos sistemas de saúde e a sua influência no tratamento da patologia cardiovascular, como no caso do enfarte agudo do miocárdio com supradesnivelamento do segmento ST (EAMcSST), é desconhecida em países onde não ocorreu saturação da capacidade dos sistemas de saúde, como é o caso de Portugal. Assim, o nosso objetivo foi determinar o efeito nas admissões por EAMcSST e no seu prognóstico intra-hospitalar na região Centro de Portugal. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se um estudo unicêntrico, observacional e retrospetivo, incluindo todos os doentes admitidos no nosso hospital por EAMcSST entre a data do primeiro caso de SARS-CoV-2 em Portugal e o término do estado de emergência (março e abril de 2020). Foram avaliadas as características e os resultados dos doentes e foi realizada uma comparação com o período homólogo de 2019. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 104 doentes com EAMcSST, 55 em 2019 e 49 em 2020 (-11%). Não se verificaram diferenças significativas entre os grupos relativamente à idade (62±12 versus 65±14 anos, p=0,308), género (84,8% mulheres versus 77,6% homens, p=0,295) ou comorbilidades. No grupo de doentes de 2020 verificou-se uma diminuição significativa na proporção de doentes transportados para o hospital pela viatura médica do Instituto Nacional de Emergência Médica (38,2% versus 20,4%, p=0,038), um aumento no atraso do sistema de saúde (49 [30-110,25] versus 140 [90-180] minutos, p=0,019), uma maior classe Killip-Kimball, com uma redução de doentes em classe I (74,5% versus 51%) e um aumento na classe III (1,8% versus 8,2%) e IV (5,5% versus 18,4%) (p=0,038), uma maior incidência de suporte vasoativo (3,7% versus 26,5%, p=0,001), de ventilação mecânica invasiva (3,6% versus 14,3%, p=0,056) e um aumento da proporção de doentes com disfunção ventricular esquerda grave na alta hospitalar (3,6% versus 16,3%, p=0,03). A mortalidade intra-hospitalar foi de 14,3% no grupo de 2020 e de 7,3% no grupo de 2019 (p=0,200). CONCLUSÃO: Apesar de não se ter verificado uma variação significativa no número de admissões por EAMcSST, existiu um aumento da gravidade, com um prognóstico intra-hospitalar significativamente mais adverso durante a pandemia por SARS-CoV-2. Um aumento no atraso do sistema de saúde, um compromisso nos serviços pré-hospitalares e o receio por parte dos doentes de contraírem uma eventual infeção hospitalar podem justificar parcialmente estes resultados e devem ser planeadas ações para diminuir o seu efeito em novos surtos pandémicos.

Dentistry vs Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: How to face this enemy

ABSTRACT Since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, numerous restrictive measures have been taken by the governments of different countries. Recently, due to the high possibility of transmission in dental offices, there was a recommendation by the American, European and Brazilian governments to request the closing of the offices. In this commentary, we will give an overview of the reasons and perspectives of this scenario.

Tracking excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 epidemic as an epidemiological surveillance strategy-preliminary results of the evaluation of six Brazilian capitals

INTRODUCTION: In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak a pandemic. In Brazil, 110 thousand cases and 5,901 deaths were confirmed by the end of April 2020. The scarcity of laboratory resources, the overload on the service network, and the broad clinical spectrum of the disease make it difficult to document all the deaths due to COVID-19. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality rate in Brazilian capitals with a high incidence of COVID-19. METHODS: We assessed the weekly mortality between epidemiological week 1 and 16 in 2020 and the corresponding period in 2019. We estimated the expected mortality at 95% confidence interval by projecting the mortality in 2019 to the population in 2020, using data from the National Association of Civil Registrars (ARPEN-Brasil). RESULTS: In the five capitals with the highest incidence of COVID-19, we identified excess deaths during the pandemic. The age group above 60 years was severely affected, while 31% of the excess deaths occurred in the age group of 20-59 years. There was a strong correlation (r = 0.94) between excess deaths and the number of deaths confirmed by epidemiological monitoring. The epidemiological surveillance captured only 52% of all mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the cities examined. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the simplicity of the method and its low cost, we believe that the assessment of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic should be used as a complementary tool for regular epidemiological surveillance.

Tracking excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 epidemic as an epidemiological surveillance strategy-preliminary results of the evaluation of six Brazilian capitals.

INTRODUCTION: In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak a pandemic. In Brazil, 110 thousand cases and 5,901 deaths were confirmed by the end of April 2020. The scarcity of laboratory resources, the overload on the service network, and the broad clinical spectrum of the disease make it difficult to document all the deaths due to COVID-19. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality rate in Brazilian capitals with a high incidence of COVID-19. METHODS: We assessed the weekly mortality between epidemiological week 1 and 16 in 2020 and the corresponding period in 2019. We estimated the expected mortality at 95% confidence interval by projecting the mortality in 2019 to the population in 2020, using data from the National Association of Civil Registrars (ARPEN-Brasil). RESULTS: In the five capitals with the highest incidence of COVID-19, we identified excess deaths during the pandemic. The age group above 60 years was severely affected, while 31% of the excess deaths occurred in the age group of 20-59 years. There was a strong correlation (r = 0.94) between excess deaths and the number of deaths confirmed by epidemiological monitoring. The epidemiological surveillance captured only 52% of all mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the cities examined. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the simplicity of the method and its low cost, we believe that the assessment of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic should be used as a complementary tool for regular epidemiological surveillance.